WEEK 11 NFL Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 11 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	CAR		CAR
	3	GB		DEN
	4	PIT		ARI
	5	NYG	***	CIN
	6	ATL	***	GB
	7	BUF	***	MIN
	8	SEA		SEA
	9	SF	***	PIT
	10	KC		IND
	11	NYJ		ATL
	12	CIN	***	TB
	13	HOU		KC
	14	DEN	***	BUF
	15	DAL	***	NYG
	16	WAS		NYJ
	17	IND	***	HOU
	18	TB	***	OAK
	19	ARI	***	CHI
	20	MIN	***	WAS
	21	PHI		DAL
	22	TEN	***	STL
	23	JAX	***	MIA
	24	BAL	***	DET
	25	DET		PHI
	26	MIA		NO
	27	CHI	***	JAX
	28	STL	***	SD
	29	CLE		SF
	30	NO		BAL
	31	OAK	***	TEN
	32	SD		CLE

Take home message:  Broncos, Cardinals, and Vikings may be over rated. Giants and Steelers are likely underrated! One thing we all agree on- the Chargers and Browns are bad!

Week 11 NFL Picks- MAN VS MACHINE

Machine made up for some lost space in week 10- still down by 2.

This week's games to watch are the OAK@DET and WAS @ CAR (surprisingly). These two are pretty much a coin toss.

Score:  MAN  71 (66%)  MACHINE  69 (65%)

Game	Machine Pick	Probability	Strength	Man Pick
STL @ BAL	STL	53.1%	Low	STL
WAS @ CAR	CAR	50.5%	Very Low	CAR
DEN @ CHI	DEN	61.8%	Medium	DEN
DAL @ MIA	MIA	52.4%	Low	MIA
OAK @ DET	DET	56.0%	Very Low	OAK
NYJ @ HOU	NYJ	66.8%	Medium	NYJ
IND @ ATL	ATL	69.5%	High	ATL
TB @ PHI	PHI	66.4%	High	PHI
KC @ SD	KC	62.1%	Medium	KC
GB @ MIN	GB	66.0%	High	MIN
SF @ SEA	SEA	57.1%	Medium	SEA
CIN @ ARI	CIN	58.9%	Low	ARI
BUF @ NE	NE	66.1%	High	NE

WEEK 9 NFL Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 8 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	GB		DEN
	3	SEA		CIN
	4	CIN		GB
	5	NYJ	***	CAR
	6	PIT	***	ARI
	7	CAR		ATL
	8	ATL		SEA
	9	KC	***	OAK
	10	NYG		STL
	11	SF	***	MIN
	12	DEN	***	NYJ
	13	BUF		PIT
	14	PHI		NYG
	15	STL		NO
	16	DAL	***	BUF
	17	WAS	***	MIA
	18	ARI	***	PHI
	19	NO		SD
	20	BAL	***	KC
	21	MIN	***	TB
	22	OAK	***	IND
	23	HOU		CLE
	24	MIA	***	WAS
	25	IND		HOU
	26	SD	***	DAL
	27	JAX		BAL
	28	TEN		CHI
	29	CHI		JAX
	30	TB		DET
	31	CLE		SF
	32	DET		TEN

Take home message:  Broncos, Cardinals, and Vikings may be over rated. Jets and Steelers are likely underrated! One thing we all agree on- the Lions are bad!

Week 8 Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 8 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	GB		GB
	3	SEA	***	CIN
	4	CIN		DEN
	5	NYJ		CAR
	6	NYG	***	ARI
	7	PIT		ATL
	8	ATL		NYJ
	9	CAR		SEA
	10	SF	***	PIT
	11	DEN	***	MIN
	12	BUF	***	STL
	13	PHI		MIA
	14	KC	***	NYG
	15	STL		PHI
	16	DAL		OAK
	17	WAS	***	NO
	18	MIN	***	IND
	19	ARI	***	BUF
	20	TEN	***	DAL
	21	NO		SD
	22	MIA	***	KC
	23	BAL		WAS
	24	OAK	***	CLE
	25	SD		CHI
	26	IND	***	BAL
	27	JAX		SF
	28	CLE		TB
	29	DET		HOU
	30	HOU		TEN
	31	TB		DET
	32	CHI		JAX

Take home message:  49ers and Bills may be over rated. Seahawks and Giants are likely underrated! Also too early to get high on the 'phins! 

Olympic Special - Men's Hockey Simulation Results

Living in Canada it is hard not to get the olympic bug and no bigger hype than that of Hockey. So I decided to try running a simulation for the tournaments final 4 teams (Canada, US, Sweden, Finland).

It is obviously a low number of games and the inconsistency of the model is through the roof. I was even lucky the whole model converged. I thought of adding other tournament or recent friendly games but those always have different players and seem irrelevant in this case. I will update the post later this week for the medal games.

Bottom line - even less than the NFL simulations take this for a grain of salt. Still fun to do anyway.

Simulation Results

Note: This is their probability of being the best team in the tournament. 

Gold: Sweden 44% (USA-26%, Canada-14%, Finland-4%)

Silver: USA 29%

Bronze: Canada 15%

PS- I hope the model is wrong. Go Canada Go!