Living in Canada it is hard not to get the olympic bug and no bigger hype than that of Hockey. So I decided to try running a simulation for the tournaments final 4 teams (Canada, US, Sweden, Finland).
It is obviously a low number of games and the inconsistency of the model is through the roof. I was even lucky the whole model converged. I thought of adding other tournament or recent friendly games but those always have different players and seem irrelevant in this case. I will update the post later this week for the medal games.
Bottom line - even less than the NFL simulations take this for a grain of salt. Still fun to do anyway.
Simulation Results
Note: This is their probability of being the best team in the tournament.
Gold: Sweden 44% (USA-26%, Canada-14%, Finland-4%)
Silver: USA 29%
Bronze: Canada 15%
It is obviously a low number of games and the inconsistency of the model is through the roof. I was even lucky the whole model converged. I thought of adding other tournament or recent friendly games but those always have different players and seem irrelevant in this case. I will update the post later this week for the medal games.
Bottom line - even less than the NFL simulations take this for a grain of salt. Still fun to do anyway.
Simulation Results
Note: This is their probability of being the best team in the tournament.
Gold: Sweden 44% (USA-26%, Canada-14%, Finland-4%)
Silver: USA 29%
Bronze: Canada 15%
PS- I hope the model is wrong. Go Canada Go!
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