Week 12 NFL Picks- MAN VS MACHINE

Machine made up for some lost space in week 11- still down by 1.

We will post the rest of the picks on Saturday. Game to watch this thanksgiving is the PHI @ DET.

Score:  MAN  78 (64%)  MACHINE  77 (64%)

Game Machine Pick Probability  Strength Man PICK PHI @ DET PHI 54.50% Very Low DET CAR @ DAL CAR 66.0% Low CAR CHI @ GB GB 74.4% Very Strong GB

Week 10 NFL Picks- MAN VS MACHINE

Man continues there lead going into week 10.

This week's games to watch are the NE@NYG and CAR@TEN These two are pretty much a coin toss.

Score:  MAN  62 (67%)  MACHINE  66 (71%)

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man PICK
BUF @ NYJ	BUF	55.1%	Very Weak	NYJ
DET @ GB	GB	95.1%	Very Strong	GB
JAX @ BAL	BAL	53.7%	Medium	BAL
MIA @ PHI	MIA	70.2%	Medium	PHI
CLE @ PIT	PIT	93.2%	Very Strong	PIT
CHI @ STL	STL	81.2%	Very Strong	STL
DAL @ TB	DAL	51.9%	Very Weak	DAL
CAR @ TEN	CAR	56.7%	Medium	CAR
NO @ WAS	WAS	92.6%	Strong	NO
MIN @ OAK	MIN	52.1%	Medium	MIN
KC @ DEN	KC	51.5%	Strong	DEN
NE @ NYG	NE	67.0%	Very Weak	NE
ARI @ SEA	SEA	72.1%	Strong	ARI
HOU @ CIN	CIN	79.2%	Strong	CIN

Week 9 NFL Picks- MAN VS MACHINE

Man takes a commanding lead going into week 8. Not an exciting week for differences in picks with only one difference.

This week's games to watch are the STL@MIN and ATL@SF These two are pretty much a coin toss.

Score:  MAN  58 (72%)  MACHINE  54 (68%)

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man PICK
CLE @ CIN	CIN	76.9%	Strong	CIN
GB @ CAR	GB	66.1%	Weak	GB
JAX @ NYJ	NYJ	71.7%	Medium	NYJ
MIA @ BUF	BUF	61.5%	Weak	BUF
OAK @ PIT	PIT	65.9%	Medium	PIT
STL @ MIN	STL	58.2%	Very Weak	MIN
TEN @ NO	NO	57.2%	Weak	NO
WAS @ NE	NE	76.6%	Strong	NE
ATL @ SF	ATL	51.5%	Very Weak	ATL
NYG @ TB	NYG	69.9%	Medium	NYG
DEN @ IND	DEN	65.4%	Weak	DEN
PHI @ DAL	PHI	54.6%	Very Weak	PHI
CHI @ SD	SD	52.4%	Very Weak	SD

WEEK 9 NFL Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 8 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	GB		DEN
	3	SEA		CIN
	4	CIN		GB
	5	NYJ	***	CAR
	6	PIT	***	ARI
	7	CAR		ATL
	8	ATL		SEA
	9	KC	***	OAK
	10	NYG		STL
	11	SF	***	MIN
	12	DEN	***	NYJ
	13	BUF		PIT
	14	PHI		NYG
	15	STL		NO
	16	DAL	***	BUF
	17	WAS	***	MIA
	18	ARI	***	PHI
	19	NO		SD
	20	BAL	***	KC
	21	MIN	***	TB
	22	OAK	***	IND
	23	HOU		CLE
	24	MIA	***	WAS
	25	IND		HOU
	26	SD	***	DAL
	27	JAX		BAL
	28	TEN		CHI
	29	CHI		JAX
	30	TB		DET
	31	CLE		SF
	32	DET		TEN

Take home message:  Broncos, Cardinals, and Vikings may be over rated. Jets and Steelers are likely underrated! One thing we all agree on- the Lions are bad!

Week 8 NFL Picks- MAN VS MACHINE

This week's games to watch are the SD@BAL and CIN@PIT These two are pretty much a coin toss.

Score:  MAN  48 (71%)  MACHINE  46 (67%)

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man PICK
MIA @ NE	NE	78.8%	Strong	NE
CIN @ PIT	CIN	54.2%	Weak	CIN
DET @ KC	KC	64.5%	Weak	KC
SF @ STL	SF	54.3%	Very Weak	STL
TB @ ATL	ATL	71.0%	Medium	ATL
NYJ @ OAK	NYJ	69.6%	Weak	NYJ
SD @ BAL	BAL	52.4%	Very Weak	SD
SEA @ DAL	SEA	69.9%	Weak	SEA
MIN @ CHI	MIN	61.8%	Very Weak	MIN
GB @ DEN	GB	66.6%	Weak	GB
ARI @ CLE	ARI	57.5%	Weak	ARI
TEN @ HOU	TEN	58.3%	Weak	HOU
IND @ CAR	CAR	65.9%	Weak	CAR
NYG @ NO	NYG	66.0%	Medium	NO

Week 8 Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 8 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	GB		GB
	3	SEA	***	CIN
	4	CIN		DEN
	5	NYJ		CAR
	6	NYG	***	ARI
	7	PIT		ATL
	8	ATL		NYJ
	9	CAR		SEA
	10	SF	***	PIT
	11	DEN	***	MIN
	12	BUF	***	STL
	13	PHI		MIA
	14	KC	***	NYG
	15	STL		PHI
	16	DAL		OAK
	17	WAS	***	NO
	18	MIN	***	IND
	19	ARI	***	BUF
	20	TEN	***	DAL
	21	NO		SD
	22	MIA	***	KC
	23	BAL		WAS
	24	OAK	***	CLE
	25	SD		CHI
	26	IND	***	BAL
	27	JAX		SF
	28	CLE		TB
	29	DET		HOU
	30	HOU		TEN
	31	TB		DET
	32	CHI		JAX

Take home message:  49ers and Bills may be over rated. Seahawks and Giants are likely underrated! Also too early to get high on the 'phins! 

From Data to the Super Bowl: Super Bowl Predictions

The Super Bowl game, we made it!

In review - Both probabilities correctly predicted last weeks conference championship games. The original super bowl prediction was rather close missing the correct prediction of having Denver in the final by one game (pesky bengals!)

We have an interesting super bowl ahead of us with the best defense playing the best offense. Historically in four super bowls where the top defense played the top offense the defensive team wins 3 out of 4 times (75%).  This supports the old Mantra....Defense Wins Championships. This was questioned by a recent analysis by the Advanced NFL Stats team that found that elite offenses in most cases will out pace elite defenses. This analysis took into account total performance and is not specific to playoffs. Either way should be a game for the history books.

 
 For my analysis the total 2013-2014 network of games including playoffs was taken into account.  The strength of this analysis is not only does it take into account the scores and the margins but also who it was against (and how those teams performed against other teams). All currently reported rankings of offense and defense are based on crude performance of yards and thus may over/under estimate true rankings. This analysis did not have weighting on any single game (NOTE: when this was done for playoff games the conclusion was the same).

Both teams did not play each other this season so all estimates are based on indirect comparisons from the network. See Network explanation here. So this week I will put the 95% probability range along with the estimate probability. Without any further adieu the results:

Super Bowl Championship Probability

DEN VS SEA ------------------------------------> SEA Win 78% chance (95% CrI = 57%-91%)


CrI -  Credible Interval. This interpretation of the 95% is that this is the certainity of our estimate. As you can see it all falls above the 50% giving us a higher certainty of a SEA win.

From the Data to the super Bowl: Championship Probabilities

We are almost there! Three more games. Here are this weeks probabilities for the conference championship games. 

As a reminder it is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability has a level of certainty. I have included the distributions for each game's probability to depict how the estimate is derived (Direct and Indirect data - see prior posts). Direct comparisons come from when these  teams played each other and the other data comes from the network of other teams they played. As you can see in both games there is a slight discordance between the direct and indirect evidence. Season performance against similar teams (network based) highly benefits both DEN and SEA which both had better records than their relative opponents and  won by larger margins. In contrast, the games played against each other were either split (SF/SEA) or in favor of NE. This highly affects the level of certainty around our estimate. Should be another exciting weekend of football in what has been a great playoffs thus far!



Game 1: NE @ DEN --------------------------> DEN win - 59.8%

Game 2: SF @ SEA ----------------------------> SEA win - 64.7%

From the Data to the Super Bowl: Playoff chances

So the wildcard weekend was just as the name says...WILD! Tough weekend for predictions and many of the brackets thrown in the trash (including my own). I was not going to adjust the prediction but for the fans I will post something for this week.

Based on some feedback rather then communicating certainty I am going to post probability of victory.  Certainty is based on not only my estimate but the  95% credibility region around that estimate. It is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability may have its own certainty around it as an estimate. Here are the probabilities of victory  for the 4 playoff games this week.



Game 1: NO @ SEA --------------------------> SEA win - 70.6%

Game 2: IND @NE ----------------------------> IND win - 51.2%

Game 3: SF @ CAR ---------------------------> SF win - 57.8%

Game 4: SD @ DEN ---------------------------> TIE  - 50%


Bonus- Looking Under the hood:  SD @ DEN further analysis (for Danny and Muno)



As discussed in prior entries the analysis being conducted is placing all the games into a network and running a simulation of the ways the games could possible happen based on prior games. The analysis then takes into account not only if the teams have played each other (direct comparison) but how they performed against teams they both played (indirect comparisons) and the teams those teams played etc.. It then weighs those indirect comparisons less then if they played each other directly. The analysis weighs direct comparisons most heavily. Comparisons further down the network are weighed less.

So lets take the SD @ DEN game for example. They split both their games against each other by an almost equal margin, additional the comparisons closest in the network (within the division) there records are only off by one game 5-1 (DEN) and 4-2 (SD) (with similar performances). So their direct and indirect comparisons are very close. When graphed (for you visual people- See Below) we see that the estimates of their direct and indirect both mirror each other right down the middle of the effect estimate (the chance of winning)- The middle of the curves or the highest density its right at 0.  Putting our probability right in the middle at 50%! Should be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Another great weekend of football ahead!

Graphic representation of the direct and indirect estimates for the SD @ DEN Game.

From the Data to the Super Bowl - Playoff Predictions

So here we are....what everyone has been waiting for....(dramatic pause).... The Playoffs. The data has been compiled and the lessons learned.  Still a work in progress.
 


Playoff Predictions

   
Wild Card Games

Game 1: KC (5) @ IND (4) -------->    IND (4) Win (Low Certainty)

Game 2: SD (6) @ CIN (3) -------->    CIN (3) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 3: SF (5) @ GB (4) --------->     SF (5) Win (Very High Certainty)

Game 4: NO (6) @ PHI (3) -------->    PHI (3)  Win (Very Low Certainty)


Divisional Round

Game 1: IND (4) @ DEN (1) ------>   DEN (1) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 2: CIN (3) @ NE (2) -------->   CIN (3) Win (High Certainty)

Game 3: SF (5) @ SEA (1) -------->   SEA (1) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 4: PHI (3) @ CAR (2) ------>   CAR (2) Win (Very Low Certainty)


Championship Games 

Game 1: CIN (3) @ DEN (1) ------->  CIN (3) Win (Low Certainty)

Game 2: CAR (2) @ SEA (1) ------->  SEA (1) Win (High Certainty)


Super Bowl 

CIN @ SEA ---------------------------->  SEA Wins (Medium Certainty)


Super Bowl Champions: Seattle


Comments:

Thanks for all the feedback and lots of great brainstorming on this latest NFL experiment. Based on the feedback there will be two major changes to work on in the off-season for next season's analysis. 

1. Taking into account home field advantage
2. A moving average to better predict the power rankings and take into account recent performance for adjustment on the head-to-head predictions.


Happy New Year!

M.

From the Data to the Super Bowl - End of Season Power Rankings and Week 17 Recap

Week 17 Recap

Week 17 was rather straight forward. The model was able to predict  13 out of the 16 games performing better than most expert picks. The two games incorrectly predicted were the CHI/GB game (low confidence prediction) and the MIA/NYJ game (self-destruction by MIA).  Lots to learn as I move forward to apply this next year!


Posted below are the power rankings for the end of the season.  I will be posting post-season predictions later this week. Should be exciting.


Week 17 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.  

Rankings	Team	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
1	SEA		SEA
2	SF		DEN
3	ARI		CAR
4	DEN		SF
5	STL	***	NE
6	CIN		NO
7	CAR		CIN
8	PHI		IND
9	MIA	***	ARI
10	NO		KC
11	PIT		PHI
12	BAL		SD
13	SD		GB
14	TB	***	PIT
15	DET	***	CHI
16	IND	***	BAL
17	KC	***	DAL
18	MIN	***	MIA
19	NE	***	NYJ
20	TEN		STL
21	JAC	***	DET
22	CHI	***	TEN
23	ATL		NYG
24	BUF		MIN
25	CLE		BUF
26	GB	***	ATL
27	HOU		TB
28	NYG		CLE
29	DAL	***	JAC
30	WAS		OAK
31	NYJ	***	WAS
32	OAK		HOU

From the Data to the Super Bowl - Week 17 Picks and Games to Watch

Week 17 Predictions: 

The last week of the season is likely one of the most difficult to pick. With some teams calling it quits, others protecting their stars for playoffs, and other still with lots on the line. This year is not to be outdone with star players making returns and others injured.

For those new to reading my analysis  go back and read the early entries on the method.

Notes:

1. Yes I love numbering things. Stop mocking me. Didn't the fact I run stats on sports give away my love of numbers.

2. I decided to spice it up and compare to a Canadian sports writer - Bruce Arthur and his picks for week 17.

3. Games to watch: DET/MIN, WAS/NYG, GB/CHI (Obviously), PHI/DAL (Yes i know...no brainer). 

4. Some teams have lost some major players or called it quits for the year/saving for the playoffs. There is still lots on the line so I doubt any team is really that willing to lose. 

5. Let the Playoffs begin!!

 

Game	Predicted Winner	Level of Certainty	Vegas Odds	Adam From ESPN	Bruce Arthur
CAR @ ATL	CAR	High	CAR	CAR	CAR
BAL @ CIN	CIN	Medium	CIN	CIN	BAL
HOU @ TEN	TEN	Medium	TEN	TEN	TEN
JAC @ IND	IND	High	IND	IND	IND
NYJ @ MIA	MIA	Very High	MIA	MIA	NYJ
DET @ MIN	DET	Very Low	MIN	MIN	MIN
WAS @ NYG	NYG	Very low	NYG	NYG	WAS
CLE @ PIT	PIT	Very High	PIT	PIT	PIT
GB @ CHI	CHI	Low	GB	GB	CHI
DEN @ OAK	DEN	Very High	DEN	DEN	DEN
BUF @ NE	NE	Medium	NE	NE	BUF
TB @ NO	NO	Medium	NO	NO	TB
SF @ ARI	SF	Low	SF	ARI	SF
KC @ SD	SD	Medium	SD	SD	SD
STL @ SEA	SEA	Medium	SEA	SEA	SEA
PHI @ DAL	PHI	Very High	PHI	PHI	PHI

From the Data to the Super Bowl - Week 17 Power Rankings and Week 16 Recap

Week 16 Recap



Week 16 was a tricky one with upsets and heart-breakers. Last week's predictions were 9 of 16. Vegas was 10 for 16 and the expert was also 9 for 16. Adjustments for recent performance and home field advantage may have been able to improve the predictions.


As we enter the last week of the NFL season the picture becomes even more murky. Posted below are the power rankings for week 17. A few things from this weeks analysis became evident:

Week 17 Notes:

1. This analysis takes the whole season's performance into account. The team that played week 1 is considered the same as the team that played week 16. We all know this is not true based on team dynamics and injuries. The ESPN power rankings are based on recent performance - a lesson that can be learned from (Although I do think the power rankings bias towards larger market teams....I'll prove it). Perhaps for next year I will take into account the prior performance and create a moving average algorithm as the season moves along.

2. Scores matter. You need to win by large margins throughout the season.If you want to be ranked higher than someone you need to beat who they beat by MORE! More is better.

3. Denver being so low makes sense only based on the recent loss to SD and the margins decreasing.

4. One big win by NE does not erase the close games they have lost/won throughout the season to some bad teams (see point 1).

5. SEA still on top even after the loss.

6. I have added last weeks ranking based on feedback I received. Keep the feedback coming!

This weeks predictions to be posted on Saturday!

Week 17 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

Last Week	This week		Disagree	ESPN Ranking
1	1	SEA		SEA
2	2	SF		DEN
5	3	ARI	***	CAR
3	4	STL	***	SF
12	5	CIN		NE
7	6	CAR		NO
15	7	PHI		CIN
6	8	NO		IND
11	9	PIT	***	ARI
8	10	MIA	***	KC
4	11	DEN	***	PHI
13	12	BAL		SD
10	13	SD		CHI
16	14	TB	***	BAL
14	15	DET		DAL
21	16	IND	***	MIA
9	17	KC	***	GB
18	18	MIN	***	PIT
19	19	NE	***	STL
20	20	TEN		DET
23	21	JAC	***	TEN
17	22	CHI	***	NYJ
22	23	ATL		BUF
24	24	BUF		NYG
25	25	CLE		MIN
30	26	GB	***	TB
31	27	HOU		ATL
26	28	NYG		CLE
27	29	DAL	***	JAC
28	30	WAS		OAK
32	31	NYJ	***	WAS
29	32	OAK		HOU