From the Data to the Super Bowl - Week 17 Power Rankings and Week 16 Recap

Week 16 Recap



Week 16 was a tricky one with upsets and heart-breakers. Last week's predictions were 9 of 16. Vegas was 10 for 16 and the expert was also 9 for 16. Adjustments for recent performance and home field advantage may have been able to improve the predictions.


As we enter the last week of the NFL season the picture becomes even more murky. Posted below are the power rankings for week 17. A few things from this weeks analysis became evident:

Week 17 Notes:

1. This analysis takes the whole season's performance into account. The team that played week 1 is considered the same as the team that played week 16. We all know this is not true based on team dynamics and injuries. The ESPN power rankings are based on recent performance - a lesson that can be learned from (Although I do think the power rankings bias towards larger market teams....I'll prove it). Perhaps for next year I will take into account the prior performance and create a moving average algorithm as the season moves along.

2. Scores matter. You need to win by large margins throughout the season.If you want to be ranked higher than someone you need to beat who they beat by MORE! More is better.

3. Denver being so low makes sense only based on the recent loss to SD and the margins decreasing.

4. One big win by NE does not erase the close games they have lost/won throughout the season to some bad teams (see point 1).

5. SEA still on top even after the loss.

6. I have added last weeks ranking based on feedback I received. Keep the feedback coming!

This weeks predictions to be posted on Saturday!

Week 17 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

Last Week	This week		Disagree	ESPN Ranking
1	1	SEA		SEA
2	2	SF		DEN
5	3	ARI	***	CAR
3	4	STL	***	SF
12	5	CIN		NE
7	6	CAR		NO
15	7	PHI		CIN
6	8	NO		IND
11	9	PIT	***	ARI
8	10	MIA	***	KC
4	11	DEN	***	PHI
13	12	BAL		SD
10	13	SD		CHI
16	14	TB	***	BAL
14	15	DET		DAL
21	16	IND	***	MIA
9	17	KC	***	GB
18	18	MIN	***	PIT
19	19	NE	***	STL
20	20	TEN		DET
23	21	JAC	***	TEN
17	22	CHI	***	NYJ
22	23	ATL		BUF
24	24	BUF		NYG
25	25	CLE		MIN
30	26	GB	***	TB
31	27	HOU		ATL
26	28	NYG		CLE
27	29	DAL	***	JAC
28	30	WAS		OAK
32	31	NYJ	***	WAS
29	32	OAK		HOU