Week 15 Results and lessons learned:
1. The predictions were able to correctly select 10 out of 16 games. Not great but in my defense the experts and the Vegas picks were also 10 out of 16. It was a week of upsets ( this season has been crazy).
2. The results raise the question of what would be the bar needed to show that this network analysis works. There will always be upsets but the hope is to be able to improve the ability to ranks teams and predict with greater certainty than the current system of prediction. There is lots of work still to be done to improve the predictability. See past discussion of limitations.
3. There needs to be some sort of home field adjustment. Not all teams are good home teams but some seem to be unable to leave home (*ahem* New Orleans). This will be a work in progress.
4. I have adjusted the way I do the Power rankings and now take into account multiple rankings to compute the final ranking. This will give a more realistic placement.
Note: Way off is noted for >5 spots.
Some comments:
1. St. Louis in 3rd place really makes me question the mode. I went back and looked closer at the results and found why-They like to beat good teams....by a ton! They also go on to lose by a little to other teams. Their 6-8 record may actually be misleading. I agree not 3rd place misleading but again beating New Orleans will help.
2. ESPN loves New England.....the data not so much. They dont win by a lot and lose to bad teams. Enough said.
3. Dallas has a lower ranking in the network model. I believe that this is the ESPN bias at play, placing bigger market teams higher up. They just don't win as much as other teams.
4. The new way I have compiled the rankings has shifted things a little bit as noted. I am surprised by the drop for Green Bay even after a big win this week (against a low Dallas Team)
I will post my week 16 picks later this week.
1. The predictions were able to correctly select 10 out of 16 games. Not great but in my defense the experts and the Vegas picks were also 10 out of 16. It was a week of upsets ( this season has been crazy).
2. The results raise the question of what would be the bar needed to show that this network analysis works. There will always be upsets but the hope is to be able to improve the ability to ranks teams and predict with greater certainty than the current system of prediction. There is lots of work still to be done to improve the predictability. See past discussion of limitations.
3. There needs to be some sort of home field adjustment. Not all teams are good home teams but some seem to be unable to leave home (*ahem* New Orleans). This will be a work in progress.
4. I have adjusted the way I do the Power rankings and now take into account multiple rankings to compute the final ranking. This will give a more realistic placement.
Week 16 Power Rankings:
Note: Way off is noted for >5 spots.
| Power Ranking | Disagree | ESPN Rankings | |
| 1 | SEA | SEA | |
| 2 | SF | DEN | |
| 3 | STL | *** | SF |
| 4 | DEN | CAR | |
| 5 | ARI | NO | |
| 6 | NO | KC | |
| 7 | CAR | NE | |
| 8 | MIA | *** | ARI |
| 9 | KC | CIN | |
| 10 | SD | IND | |
| 11 | PIT | *** | PHI |
| 12 | CIN | BAL | |
| 13 | BAL | CHI | |
| 14 | DET | MIA | |
| 15 | PHI | SD | |
| 16 | TB | *** | GB |
| 17 | CHI | DET | |
| 18 | MIN | DAL | |
| 19 | NE | *** | PIT |
| 20 | TEN | STL | |
| 21 | IND | *** | TEN |
| 22 | ATL | *** | NYJ |
| 23 | JAC | *** | MIN |
| 24 | BUF | TB | |
| 25 | CLE | BUF | |
| 26 | NYG | NYG | |
| 27 | DAL | *** | CLE |
| 28 | WAS | ATL | |
| 29 | OAK | JAC | |
| 30 | GB | *** | OAK |
| 31 | HOU | WAS | |
| 32 | NYJ | *** | HOU |
Some comments:
1. St. Louis in 3rd place really makes me question the mode. I went back and looked closer at the results and found why-They like to beat good teams....by a ton! They also go on to lose by a little to other teams. Their 6-8 record may actually be misleading. I agree not 3rd place misleading but again beating New Orleans will help.
2. ESPN loves New England.....the data not so much. They dont win by a lot and lose to bad teams. Enough said.
3. Dallas has a lower ranking in the network model. I believe that this is the ESPN bias at play, placing bigger market teams higher up. They just don't win as much as other teams.
4. The new way I have compiled the rankings has shifted things a little bit as noted. I am surprised by the drop for Green Bay even after a big win this week (against a low Dallas Team)
I will post my week 16 picks later this week.
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