Firstly- this is a work in progress but as promised here are the picks for this week. This is a pretty straight forward week. The two games to watch will be the Hou/Ind and NE/MIA. The data points to a possible upset occurring.
Some quick notes:
1. As you can see it was wrong about the Thursday night game. In my defense- everyone was wrong about Thursday game.
2. The level of certainty is based on the probability of one team winning. Each estimate has a range around it. The higher that range is the more certain we are. Very few predictions come out with 95% certainty most of them have varying levels. I tried to categorize them to help better predict in the future.
3. Just like I mentioned in the last post- I did not take into account home field and injuries. These are future works.
4. Thanks for all the feedback into better completing the rankings and now the predictions. This is a work in progress.
5. I also picked one of the more popular analysts online to see how we match up against them. This week is not that much fun since everything aligns pretty well.
Some quick notes:
1. As you can see it was wrong about the Thursday night game. In my defense- everyone was wrong about Thursday game.
2. The level of certainty is based on the probability of one team winning. Each estimate has a range around it. The higher that range is the more certain we are. Very few predictions come out with 95% certainty most of them have varying levels. I tried to categorize them to help better predict in the future.
3. Just like I mentioned in the last post- I did not take into account home field and injuries. These are future works.
4. Thanks for all the feedback into better completing the rankings and now the predictions. This is a work in progress.
5. I also picked one of the more popular analysts online to see how we match up against them. This week is not that much fun since everything aligns pretty well.
| Game | Predicted Winner | Level of Certainty | Vegas Odds | Adam From ESPN |
| SD @ DEN | DEN | Low | DEN | DEN |
| WSH @ ATL | ATL | High | ATL | ATL |
| CHI @ CLE | CHI | Medium | CHI | CHI |
| HOU @ IND | HOU | Very Low | IND | IND |
| NE @ MIA | MIA | Very Low | NE | MIA |
| PHI @ MIN | PHI | Very low | PHI | PHI |
| SEA @ NYG | SEA | Very High | SEA | SEA |
| SF @ TB | SF | High | SF | SF |
| BUF @ JAX | BUF | Low | BUF | JAX |
| KC @ OAK | KC | Very High | KC | KC |
| NYJ @ CAR | CAR | Very High | CAR | CAR |
| GB @ DAL | DAL | Low | DAL | DAL |
| ARI @ TEN | ARI | Very High | ARI | ARI |
| NO @ STL | NO | Low | NO | NO |
| CIN @ PIT | CIN | Low | CIN | PIT |
| BAL @ DET | BAL | Very Low | DET | DET |
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