From the Data to the Super Bowl - Playoff Predictions

So here we are....what everyone has been waiting for....(dramatic pause).... The Playoffs. The data has been compiled and the lessons learned.  Still a work in progress.
 


Playoff Predictions

   
Wild Card Games

Game 1: KC (5) @ IND (4) -------->    IND (4) Win (Low Certainty)

Game 2: SD (6) @ CIN (3) -------->    CIN (3) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 3: SF (5) @ GB (4) --------->     SF (5) Win (Very High Certainty)

Game 4: NO (6) @ PHI (3) -------->    PHI (3)  Win (Very Low Certainty)


Divisional Round

Game 1: IND (4) @ DEN (1) ------>   DEN (1) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 2: CIN (3) @ NE (2) -------->   CIN (3) Win (High Certainty)

Game 3: SF (5) @ SEA (1) -------->   SEA (1) Win (Medium Certainty)

Game 4: PHI (3) @ CAR (2) ------>   CAR (2) Win (Very Low Certainty)


Championship Games 

Game 1: CIN (3) @ DEN (1) ------->  CIN (3) Win (Low Certainty)

Game 2: CAR (2) @ SEA (1) ------->  SEA (1) Win (High Certainty)


Super Bowl 

CIN @ SEA ---------------------------->  SEA Wins (Medium Certainty)


Super Bowl Champions: Seattle


Comments:

Thanks for all the feedback and lots of great brainstorming on this latest NFL experiment. Based on the feedback there will be two major changes to work on in the off-season for next season's analysis. 

1. Taking into account home field advantage
2. A moving average to better predict the power rankings and take into account recent performance for adjustment on the head-to-head predictions.


Happy New Year!

M.