We are almost there! Three more games. Here are this weeks probabilities for the conference championship games.
As a reminder it is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability has a level of certainty. I have included the distributions for each game's probability to depict how the estimate is derived (Direct and Indirect data - see prior posts). Direct comparisons come from when these teams played each other and the other data comes from the network of other teams they played. As you can see in both games there is a slight discordance between the direct and indirect evidence. Season performance against similar teams (network based) highly benefits both DEN and SEA which both had better records than their relative opponents and won by larger margins. In contrast, the games played against each other were either split (SF/SEA) or in favor of NE. This highly affects the level of certainty around our estimate. Should be another exciting weekend of football in what has been a great playoffs thus far!
Game 1: NE @ DEN --------------------------> DEN win - 59.8%
Game 2: SF @ SEA ----------------------------> SEA win - 64.7%
As a reminder it is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability has a level of certainty. I have included the distributions for each game's probability to depict how the estimate is derived (Direct and Indirect data - see prior posts). Direct comparisons come from when these teams played each other and the other data comes from the network of other teams they played. As you can see in both games there is a slight discordance between the direct and indirect evidence. Season performance against similar teams (network based) highly benefits both DEN and SEA which both had better records than their relative opponents and won by larger margins. In contrast, the games played against each other were either split (SF/SEA) or in favor of NE. This highly affects the level of certainty around our estimate. Should be another exciting weekend of football in what has been a great playoffs thus far!
Game 1: NE @ DEN --------------------------> DEN win - 59.8%
Game 2: SF @ SEA ----------------------------> SEA win - 64.7%
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