So the wildcard weekend was just as the name says...WILD! Tough weekend for predictions and many of the brackets thrown in the trash (including my own). I was not going to adjust the prediction but for the fans I will post something for this week.
Based on some feedback rather then communicating certainty I am going to post probability of victory. Certainty is based on not only my estimate but the 95% credibility region around that estimate. It is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability may have its own certainty around it as an estimate. Here are the probabilities of victory for the 4 playoff games this week.
Game 1: NO @ SEA --------------------------> SEA win - 70.6%
Game 2: IND @NE ----------------------------> IND win - 51.2%
Game 3: SF @ CAR ---------------------------> SF win - 57.8%
Game 4: SD @ DEN ---------------------------> TIE - 50%
Bonus- Looking Under the hood: SD @ DEN further analysis (for Danny and Muno)
As discussed in prior entries the analysis being conducted is placing all the games into a network and running a simulation of the ways the games could possible happen based on prior games. The analysis then takes into account not only if the teams have played each other (direct comparison) but how they performed against teams they both played (indirect comparisons) and the teams those teams played etc.. It then weighs those indirect comparisons less then if they played each other directly. The analysis weighs direct comparisons most heavily. Comparisons further down the network are weighed less.
So lets take the SD @ DEN game for example. They split both their games against each other by an almost equal margin, additional the comparisons closest in the network (within the division) there records are only off by one game 5-1 (DEN) and 4-2 (SD) (with similar performances). So their direct and indirect comparisons are very close. When graphed (for you visual people- See Below) we see that the estimates of their direct and indirect both mirror each other right down the middle of the effect estimate (the chance of winning)- The middle of the curves or the highest density its right at 0. Putting our probability right in the middle at 50%! Should be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Another great weekend of football ahead!
Based on some feedback rather then communicating certainty I am going to post probability of victory. Certainty is based on not only my estimate but the 95% credibility region around that estimate. It is important to note that although we have a probability, that probability may have its own certainty around it as an estimate. Here are the probabilities of victory for the 4 playoff games this week.
Game 1: NO @ SEA --------------------------> SEA win - 70.6%
Game 2: IND @NE ----------------------------> IND win - 51.2%
Game 3: SF @ CAR ---------------------------> SF win - 57.8%
Game 4: SD @ DEN ---------------------------> TIE - 50%
Bonus- Looking Under the hood: SD @ DEN further analysis (for Danny and Muno)
As discussed in prior entries the analysis being conducted is placing all the games into a network and running a simulation of the ways the games could possible happen based on prior games. The analysis then takes into account not only if the teams have played each other (direct comparison) but how they performed against teams they both played (indirect comparisons) and the teams those teams played etc.. It then weighs those indirect comparisons less then if they played each other directly. The analysis weighs direct comparisons most heavily. Comparisons further down the network are weighed less.
So lets take the SD @ DEN game for example. They split both their games against each other by an almost equal margin, additional the comparisons closest in the network (within the division) there records are only off by one game 5-1 (DEN) and 4-2 (SD) (with similar performances). So their direct and indirect comparisons are very close. When graphed (for you visual people- See Below) we see that the estimates of their direct and indirect both mirror each other right down the middle of the effect estimate (the chance of winning)- The middle of the curves or the highest density its right at 0. Putting our probability right in the middle at 50%! Should be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Another great weekend of football ahead!
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| Graphic representation of the direct and indirect estimates for the SD @ DEN Game. |
Where is this weeks post?
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