Week 7 NFL Power Rankings

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN. 

Week 7 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	NYJ	***	GB
	3	PIT	***	DEN
	4	GB		ARI
	5	CIN		CIN
	6	PHI		CAR
	7	SF	***	ATL
	8	ATL		NYJ
	9	SEA		PHI
	10	NYG		PIT
	11	DEN	***	IND
	12	BUF		SEA
	13	CAR	***	SD
	14	WAS	***	NYG
	15	MIN		MIN
	16	BAL	***	DAL
	17	MIA		BUF
	18	DAL		STL
	19	SD	***	SF
	20	CLE	***	NO
	21	IND	***	MIA
	22	KC		WAS
	23	STL		OAK
	24	OAK		DET
	25	NO	***	CHI
	26	ARI	***	HOU
	27	HOU		CLE
	28	TEN		BAL
	29	DET		KC
	30	JAX		TEN
	31	TB		TB
	32	CHI		JAX

Take home message:  Cardinals and Saints are over rated. Jets and Steelers are underrated!

NFL Week 6 Picks- Man Vs. Machine

Week 5 had Man with one more correct prediction. We are now all tied up at 30. Both Man and Machine are at 71% both picking 30 games out of 42 so far. Not too shabby!

This week's games to watch are the CIN @ BUF and HOU @ JAX. These two are pretty much a coin toss.

Five different predictions this week-Should be an exciting week of football!

Score:  MAN  30 (71%)  MACHINE  30 (71%)

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man PICK
CIN @ BUF	CIN	51.0%	Very Weak	CIN
KC @ MIN	MIN	54.8%	Weak	MIN
DEN @ CLE	DEN	60.9%	Weak	DEN
CHI @ DET	DET	57.6%	Weak	DET
WAS @ NYJ	NYJ	62.4%	Medium	NYJ
ARI @ PIT	PIT	74.0%	Medium	ARI
HOU @ JAX	HOU	53.5%	Weak	JAX
MIA @ TEN	TEN	56.9%	Very Weak	MIA
CAR @ SEA	SEA	59.2%	Weak	SEA
SD @ GB	GB	70.9%	Strong	GB
BAL @ SF	SF	65.3%	Medium	BAL
NE @ IND	NE	81.2%	Very Strong	NE
NYG @ PHI	NYG	58.0%	Weak	PHI

NFL Week 5 Picks- Man Vs. Machine

Week 4 was a tie with both the Man and Machine both picking 9 out of 14 picks. Splitting two games (NYJ/MIA and DAL/NO).

This week's games to watch are the SEA @ CIN and ARI @ DET. These two are pretty much a coin toss. Since the probabilities do not take into account home field advantage it is likely the Machine predictions are more on the side of CIN and DET.

Score:            MAN  21            MACHINE   22

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man Pick
CHI @ KC	KC	74.2%	Medium	KC
SEA @ CIN	SEA	50.9%	Low	CIN
WAS @ ATL	ATL	64.7%	Medium	ATL
JAX @ TB	JAX	60.0%	Low	JAX
NO @ PHI	PHI	70.0%	Medium	PHI
CLE @ BAL	BAL	62.3%	Low	BAL
STL @ GB	GB	70.8%	Medium	GB
BUF @ TEN	BUF	71.9%	Medium	BUF
ARI @ DET	DET	51.0%	Very Low	ARI
NE @ DAL	NE	68.0%	Low	NE
DEN @ OAK	DEN	69.3%	Medium	DEN
SF @ NYG	NYG	52.4%	Low	NYG
PIT @ SD	PIT	77.2%	Medium	SD

Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

We are back with our weekly rankings. 

Click here to re-read what the hell we are doing to come up with these rankings. 

As usual we will compare to the current "expert" rankings on ESPN.  

Week 5 Power Rankings:
 Note: Disagree is denoted by a disagreement of >5 spots between ranking systems.

	Rankings	Sprockets Ranking	Disagree	ESPN Ranking
	1	NE		NE
	2	PIT	***	GB
	3	NYG	***	DEN
	4	ATL		ARI
	5	GB		CIN
	6	SF	***	ATL
	7	NYJ		SEA
	8	CIN		CAR
	9	BUF		NYJ
	10	SEA		PIT
	11	DEN	***	STL
	12	DAL		BUF
	13	PHI	***	DAL
	14	WAS		MIN
	15	BAL		NYG
	16	KC		IND
	17	CAR	***	SD
	18	MIN		KC
	19	STL	***	BAL
	20	MIA	***	OAK
	21	SD		NO
	22	DET		PHI
	23	TEN		TEN
	24	HOU		WAS
	25	OAK		CLE
	26	IND	***	DET
	27	ARI	***	SF
	28	CLE		HOU
	29	NO	***	CHI
	30	JAX		MIA
	31	TB		JAX
	32	CHI		TB

Take home message: Lots of discrepancy as can be expected this early in the season. Lots of variability still going on. Watch out for the Giants who may actually be better than people think. On the other hand seems like the Cardinals and the Colts may not be worth the hype. Remember this takes into account how much and who you lost to. 

MAN VS. Machine - Week 4 Picks

Week 3 was a close one to kick off the challenge. There was only a 3 selection difference between Man and Machine. Machine went up 2-1 on these difference taking a 1 point pick victory by the end of the  first week. This week looks like another close one.

Note: Still no home-field adjustments and still large variability in the model as we are still early on in the season.

Score:            MAN  12            MACHINE   13

Here are the week 4 picks:

Game	Machine Pick	Probability (Home)	Strength	Man PICK
NYJ @ MIA	NYJ	58.20%	Weak	MIA
CAR @ TB	CAR	80.80%	Medium	CAR
NYG @ BUF	BUF	65.40%	Weak	BUF
OAK @ CHI	OAK	56.30%	Weak	OAK
HOU @ ATL	ATL	60.80%	Weak	ATL
JAC @ IND	IND	77.20%	Medium	IND
KC @ CIN	CIN	54.10%	Very Weak	CIN
PHI @ WAS	PHI	81.70%	Medium	PHI
CLE @ SD	SD	82.10%	Medium	SD
MIN @ DEN	DEN	68.10%	Medium	DEN
STL @ ARI	ARI	58.30%	Weak	ARI
GB @ SF	GB	55.20%	Weak	GB
DAL @ NO	DAL	74.90%	Weak	NO
DET @ SEA	SEA	67.50%	Weak	SEA

MAN VS. MACHINE- Sprockets is Back! Week 3 Predictions

Sprockets is back and this year with a challenge/experiment. Every week the Sprockets machine (model) will go up against a skilled expert to see how it performs (MAN). There is a steak dinner on the line. We will keep track of the picks for both until week 17 and see how well I do against "knowledge" based picks. I predict the model will perform better and better as the season goes on and gets more information. Stay Tuned!

Some adjustments have been (later post) and will be made to the model to predict the games. Still working on how to best (if at all) adjust for home-field advantage! I will be posting the power rankings after this week.

Score:            MAN  0            MACHINE   0

Without any further ado here are the week 3 picks:

Game	Machine Pick	Probability	Strength	Man PICK
ATL @ DAL	DAL	75.19	Weak	ATL
IND @ TEN	IND	93.91	Strong	IND
Oak @ CLE	OAK	70.92	Weak	OAK
CIN @ BAL	CIN	57.47	Weak	CIN
JAX @ NE	NE	96.15	Strong	NE
NO @ CAR	CAR	59.35	Weak	CAR
PHI @ NYJ	PHI	68.97	Weak	NYJ
TB @ HOU	HOU	89.63	Medium	HOU
SD @ MIN	SD	69.93	Weak	SD
PIT @ STL	PIT	86.52	Medium	PIT
SF @ ARI	ARI	65.64	Weak	ARI
BUF @ MIA	BUF	75.79	Weak	MIA
CHI @ SEA	SEA	77.52	Weak	SEA
DEN @ DET	DEN	70.59	Weak	DEN
KC @ GB	GB	63.5	Weak	GB

A Splash for Awareness

Recently my Facebook news feed has become flooded with videos of my friends splashing themselves with ice cold water to raise awareness for ALS. 

Voices have sprung up poo-pooing on it saying that it is silly viral fad and doing no good. Raising awareness is usually a term everyone uses with little understanding of what we are being made aware of. So I asked- are people becoming more aware? 

What better place to look than to our modern source of knowledge and awareness - Google! 

I looked up the worldwide Google  trends in the last 90 days related to ALS. With no surprise my crude assessment shows a big spike since the start of the viral fad. Conclusion - people are reading about it. 

It is a big jump to say people are being made more aware but at least they are reading up on it. Plus as a bonus ALS Association has raised a lot of money

 "The organization’s national office has received $5.5 million for Lou Gehrig’s disease research since July 29, compared to $32,000 in the same period last year." 

(Source:http://time.com/3111699/ice-bucket-challenge-als-donations/ )

So why not people of the internet- Keep splashing!